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Trick of the Trade – Value Bet Calculations

The betting world is something that has always been see as a chance to earn. However, when it comes to betting, every gambler wants to make sure they also get the maximum value for their investment. This is why many people today are investing their time, money, and effort into using value bet calculations. And it is not a surprise that value betting has become extremely popular these days, creating a more systemic and balanced approach to how you place and manage your bets.

Learn the Basics
Today, it has become the go-to choice for many people looking to have a little more control over their betting. Value bets are those which have a higher percentage of return than the risk that you are taking on in the first place. Systemic approaches allow people who enjoy gambling to avoid going with gut feeling or anything similar in their betting.

By using value bet calculations, it is possible for a bettor to make better choices. To utilise such a system, though, you need to understand that there is a difference between the odds provided by a bookmaker and the actual chance of a result taking place. Bookmakers fix the price, or the odds, based on the probability that a team has of coming out on top in a certain event. However, the odds do not always represent the true probability of a result taking place.

The price is also factored by the bookmakers business model as well as the overall mood of the market at that moment in time.

Identifying and finding value bets

Value bets are typically found by making sure that you look for a result where the likely outcome is greater than the actual odds being offered. This means that your return would be better than if you simply took a punt and hoped for the best.

Value betting means that you only place a bet when you are looking for a bet that gives you a better chance of winning. Especially today, the sheer volume of markets out there means that bookmakers will undervalue opportunities on a regular basis. Therefore, this allows you to swoop in and make a good return.

How do you calculate value bet calculations, though?

  1. First off, you need to calculate the implied probability that the bookmaker is providing
  2. Then, you need to calculate the true probability – basically, what the odds should be
  3. Calculate your expected return and see if the money made back is worth the effort
  4. If your expected return is within the positive, then this is a value bet worth taking on


Based on the above, let us provide a quick example. So, the probability of an odd taking place requires you to divide 100 by the odds. So, if something had an odds rate of 2, it means that it has a 50/50 chance of happening. So, take whatever the bookmaker is offering you in terms of odds and divide the number 100 by those odds. This gives you the rough percentage chance of that taking place.

You then need to determine if you are happy to take the risk with a higher payout, lower likelihood bet or go for the value bet. Value betting means basically looking for something where the odds seem to have undervalued a certain result as being more or less likely.

On a conclusive note, it is safe to say that value betting is fun. Also, it can be a good way to help you stop taking punts based on your emotions or your personal interests. That is why, it is imperative to consider the value bets as part of your overall betting strategy.