Our Picks and xG Analysis
Matchweek 9 | 31 October - 2 November 2026. Team news as of 29 October 2026. All kick-off times are GMT.
Anfield looks set for a scrap. The Etihad has goals written all over it. And we are backing Nottingham Forest and Everton to upset their hosts. Our Premier League predictions this weekend cover all ten games, with clear selections and the football behind them.
We assess playing styles, form, home advantage, team news and X Analytics before making our picks. Then we bring in Prediction Lab, another weapon in our armoury, to see how our new model’s probabilities compare. Where they agree, we have additional support. Where they differ, we say so.
Chelsea vs Manchester United Prediction
Saturday 31 October | 12:30 GMT
Our pick is Chelsea to win. Home advantage and Palmer’s return give us reasons to expect a response against a United side with three draws and two defeats in their last five league games.
United’s 3-0 defeat by Bournemouth came with an xG deficit of 0.84-2.56. Chelsea also struggled in their 2-0 loss to Tottenham, creating just 0.46 xG. Their season attacking averages are close at 1.55 and 1.58 npxG, and both concede chances worth more than they create.
Palmer’s return from suspension should reconnect Chelsea’s midfield and attack. João Pedro is absent, while United have a fitness concern over Bruno Fernandes and are without Šeško and Shaw.
Our prediction tool agrees: 44.7% for Chelsea, ahead of the draw at 22.1% and United at 33.2%. Over 2.5 goals is rated at 67.6%, but Pedro’s absence keeps our main interest on the home win.
Coventry vs Sunderland Prediction
Saturday 31 October | 15:00 GMT
We are going with under 2.5 goals. Coventry have lost three of their last five league matches; Sunderland have four defeats and a draw. We expect a game in which the first goal carries considerable weight.
Coventry average just 0.93 npxG per match. Their latest 1-0 defeat by Fulham produced an xG count of 0.40-0.57. Sunderland create more at 1.32 npxG, but their 1.90 npxGA average is the strongest argument against a low-scoring contest.
Bobby Thomas is doubtful for Coventry. Sunderland are without Ballard, have a concern over Alderete and welcome Brobbey back in attack. Coventry have also lost three of four home games, leaving little appeal in picking a winner.
The model offers modest support for our selection: 53.5% for under 2.5 goals, with projected goals of 1.24-1.29. We prefer the lower-scoring game, with only a narrow advantage in the probabilities.
Hull City vs Ipswich Prediction
Saturday 31 October | 15:00 GMT
Both teams to score is our selection. Hull remain unbeaten at home with a win and three draws, while Ipswich have lost three of four away games. The defensive numbers make BTTS more appealing than the result.
Hull allow 1.65 npxGA per game, Ipswich 2.26. Ipswich conceded chances worth 2.76 xG in their latest 1-1 with Forest; Hull created 1.94 xG in their own draw with Brentford. Their attacking averages of 1.07 and 1.23 npxG are modest, but these defences should give both sides opportunities.
Belloumi and McBurnie provide Hull’s attacking outlets. Targett and Hughes are absent, while Ipswich are without Taylor and need to assess Lukić.
Our model agrees with the BTTS pick at 61.0%, with over 2.5 goals at 58.8%. Hull lead the result probabilities at 41.6%, but our focus stays on a goal at each end.
Man City vs Brighton Prediction
Saturday 31 October | 15:00 GMT
Over 2.5 goals is our pick at the Etihad. City’s 2.37 npxG per game and Brighton’s 2.17 make this the strongest attacking pairing on the schedule in our data.
Both sides have four wins from their last five league matches. City lost 2-1 at Villa despite an xG advantage of 2.29-0.65; Brighton lost 2-0 at Liverpool while narrowly leading the chance-quality figures 1.31-1.28. Their attacks continued to produce.
City have won all four home games, with Haaland expected back after cup rotation. Brighton are missing Mitoma and Tzimas, leaving Kostoulas an important attacking outlet. We expect City to push forward, with Brighton capable of making them turn and defend after losing possession.
The prediction tool strongly supports our selection: 78.2% for over 2.5 goals and 75.2% for BTTS, with projected goals of 2.37-1.77. City lead the result probabilities at 51.5%, but goals are our preferred angle.
Bournemouth vs Leeds Prediction
Saturday 31 October | 15:00 GMT
We are backing Bournemouth to win. Their 3-0 victory at Old Trafford came with 2.56-0.84 xG, giving substance to a second successive league win.
Bournemouth average 2.09 npxG for and 1.16 against, compared with Leeds’ 1.36 on both measures. Leeds have conceded only six league goals and drawn three of their last five, so we expect resistance. Bournemouth still offer more ways to create the decisive chances.
Evanilson should lead the line, supported by Kluivert and Tavernier. Scott, Tóth and Araújo are absent; Leeds have Stach doubtful and Rodon unavailable. Both meetings last season finished 2-2, while Bournemouth’s busy schedule adds a fatigue concern.
Our new model supports the home win at 55.7%, the highest home-win probability of the matchweek. The draw is 22.7% and Leeds 21.6%, with projected goals of 1.84-1.06.
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest Prediction
Saturday 31 October | 15:00 GMT
We will take the risk on Forest to win away. One win, one draw and three defeats from their last five make this a bold call. Their chance quality gives us a reason to make it.
Forest produce 1.87 npxG per game and allow 1.13, against Brentford’s 1.70 and 1.41. Their latest 1-1 at Ipswich came despite a 2.76-0.86 xG advantage. They have also lost only once in four away matches; Brentford have won twice in four at home.
Janelt returns for Brentford, but Yarmoliuk is suspended. Forest are without Igor Jesus and Savona. With Gibbs-White supplying Delap, we expect good shooting positions again. Finishing those chances is the risk.
Our prediction tool agrees on the result: 43.2% Forest, 34.6% Brentford and 22.2% draw. Its 67.8% BTTS probability points towards opportunities at both ends.
Tottenham vs Crystal Palace Prediction
Saturday 31 October | 17:30 GMT
Tottenham to win is our selection. Victories over Coventry and Chelsea have given Spurs momentum. Palace arrive after two defeats without scoring and have conceded 19 goals in eight league games.
Palace allow 2.17 npxGA per match, presenting an opening for a Tottenham attack averaging 1.23 npxG. Spurs generated just 0.98 xG at Chelsea, so their improving results still need stronger, more consistent chance creation.
Maddison’s involvement needs confirmation and Bentancur is suspended. Henderson returns for Palace, while Sarr and Tomiyasu remain absent. Mateta should provide their attacking focal point.
We expect Tottenham to exploit the areas in which Palace repeatedly concede chances. Our model supports that call, with 44.2% for Tottenham, 23.6% for the draw and 32.1% for Palace. Projected goals are 1.69-1.41.
Aston Villa vs Fulham Prediction
Saturday 31 October | 20:00 GMT
Our pick is Aston Villa to win. Three wins in their last five league games, Jackson’s form and this particular home fixture persuade us to side with Villa. Fulham have won only once in 18 Premier League visits to Villa Park.
The counterargument is substantial. Villa’s 2-1 win over City came with an xG deficit of 0.65-2.29. They average 1.20 npxG for and 1.92 against, compared with Fulham’s 1.57 and 1.53. Fulham also arrive after consecutive 1-0 victories.
Villa are missing Onana, Wan-Bissaka and Ruggeri; Fulham have Sessegnon suspended and Smith Rowe doubtful. We expect Jackson’s movement and support from midfield to trouble the visitors, although Villa have only one home league win so far.
The prediction tool disagrees with our pick: 36.1% Villa, 23.5% draw and 40.4% Fulham. We retain the home win as our own football judgement, placing greater weight on recent form and Jackson’s influence.
Liverpool vs Arsenal Prediction
Sunday 1 November | 16:30 GMT
Under 2.5 goals is our pick at Anfield. Arsenal’s defensive numbers, Liverpool’s recent scoring output and the attacking absences point us towards a tight contest.
Liverpool have three wins, a draw and a defeat from their last five league matches, with five goals scored and four conceded. Arsenal have four wins and a defeat. The visitors’ season figures are stronger at both ends: 1.77 npxG for and 0.92 against, compared with Liverpool’s 1.38 and 1.24.
Arsenal are winless in their last 13 league visits to Anfield, while Liverpool have won only one of the last eight league meetings overall. Last season brought a 1-0 here and a 0-0 in London.
We expect midfield to decide the flow. Liverpool need Mac Allister and Gravenberch to find Wirtz, allowing him to supply Isak. Disrupting that connection could severely limit the hosts’ chances.
Liverpool are without Frimpong, Bradley, Ekitike and Leoni, with Szoboszlai and Muñoz requiring checks. Arsenal miss Saka and Saliba; Rice, Madueke and Calafiori remain doubts. Rice’s availability matters particularly to their defensive protection.
Our new model agrees with the under at 58.6%, projecting 1.02-1.32 goals. It gives Arsenal 43.4% to win, Liverpool 28.9% and the draw 27.7%. We stay with the broader call: no more than two goals.
Newcastle vs Everton Prediction
Monday 2 November | 20:00 GMT
We are backing Everton to win away. Newcastle have one home league win from four and continue to allow enough chances to make them vulnerable.
Their last five league games brought two wins and three defeats, with six goals scored and ten conceded. Everton have one win, two draws and two defeats, scoring three and conceding six. Newcastle’s 2-0 win over Palace came with an xG deficit of 1.30-2.03.
Across the season, Newcastle average 1.15 npxG for and 1.70 against. Everton’s 1.56 and 1.58 offer a better balance. Everton also won Thursday’s cup meeting 3-1, with Grealish omitted for disciplinary reasons.
Newcastle miss Livramento, with Miley and Fernandez-Pardo requiring checks. Everton need an update on Branthwaite. We expect the Dewsbury-Hall and Barry combination to threaten spaces behind Newcastle’s attacks.
Everton are still seeking their first away league win. We see an opportunity here, and the model agrees: 47.8% Everton, 29.4% Newcastle and 22.8% draw, with projected goals of 1.39-1.82.
Our strongest positions
Our clearest positions are over 2.5 goals at the Etihad, Bournemouth to win and under 2.5 goals at Anfield. Forest and Everton are the bolder away selections. Villa are the deliberate departure from the model.
Our Premier League Betting Tips
| Match | Our selection | Model |
|---|---|---|
| Chelsea vs Man United | Chelsea to win | 44.7% |
| Coventry vs Sunderland | Under 2.5 goals | 53.5% |
| Hull City vs Ipswich | Both teams to score | 61.0% |
| Man City vs Brighton | Over 2.5 goals | 78.2% |
| Bournemouth vs Leeds | Bournemouth to win | 55.7% |
| Brentford vs Forest | Forest to win | 43.2% |
| Tottenham vs Palace | Tottenham to win | 44.2% |
| Aston Villa vs Fulham | Villa to win* | 36.1% |
| Liverpool vs Arsenal | Under 2.5 goals | 58.6% |
| Newcastle vs Everton | Everton to win | 47.8% |
* Villa is our selection; the model narrowly favours Fulham.
Match Result and Goal Probabilities
All figures are percentages. O2.5 = over 2.5 goals; U2.5 = under 2.5 goals.
| Match | Home | Draw | Away | O2.5 | U2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chelsea vs Man United | 44.7 | 22.1 | 33.2 | 67.6 | 32.4 |
| Coventry vs Sunderland | 35.6 | 26.8 | 37.7 | 46.5 | 53.5 |
| Hull vs Ipswich | 41.6 | 24.0 | 34.4 | 58.8 | 41.2 |
| Man City vs Brighton | 51.5 | 19.6 | 29.0 | 78.2 | 21.8 |
| Bournemouth vs Leeds | 55.7 | 22.7 | 21.6 | 55.4 | 44.6 |
| Brentford vs Forest | 34.6 | 22.2 | 43.2 | 67.5 | 32.5 |
| Tottenham vs Palace | 44.2 | 23.6 | 32.1 | 59.8 | 40.2 |
| Aston Villa vs Fulham | 36.1 | 23.5 | 40.4 | 61.6 | 38.4 |
| Liverpool vs Arsenal | 28.9 | 27.7 | 43.4 | 41.4 | 58.6 |
| Newcastle vs Everton | 29.4 | 22.8 | 47.8 | 62.3 | 37.7 |
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X Analytics and Model Notes
The model uses 80 Premier League matches from 2026-27 through 25 October, eight per team, with adjustments for opposition and venue. Season npxG and npxGA are per-match averages of non-penalty expected goals created and conceded. Recent form covers the last five league games.
Team news and likely line-ups inform our football assessment, but the latest injuries and absences are not incorporated into these model percentages. Figures are rounded. The leading outcome in the three-way result market may still have a probability below 50%.
FAQ: Premier League Predictions Matchweek 9
What are your strongest Premier League predictions this weekend?
Our clearest positions for Matchweek 9 are over 2.5 goals in Man City vs Brighton, Bournemouth to beat Leeds and under 2.5 goals in Liverpool vs Arsenal. Nottingham Forest and Everton are our bolder away picks.
When are the Matchweek 9 games played?
Matchweek 9 runs from Saturday 31 October to Monday 2 November 2026. It opens with Chelsea vs Manchester United at 12:30 GMT on Saturday and closes with Newcastle vs Everton at 20:00 GMT on Monday.
What do xG and npxG mean?
xG (expected goals) measures the quality of the chances a team creates or concedes. npxG is the same measure without penalties. The season figures in this article are per-match averages of non-penalty expected goals created (npxG) and conceded (npxGA).
What is Prediction Lab?
Prediction Lab is our new prediction model. For this matchweek it uses 80 Premier League matches from 2026-27, eight per team, with adjustments for opposition and venue, and gives probabilities for the match result and the goals markets. Injuries and absences are not included in its percentages, so we compare it with our own football assessment.
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