Did you know about the
August betting flip?
Let’s find out.
To fully understand why lay the favorite can be a goldmine in August, you need to forget for a moment the traditional way we look at betting.
On a betting exchange, when you Lay, you become the “bookmaker”. You do not care who wins. You only care that the favorite does NOT win. If the match ends in a draw or the weaker team (the underdog0 wins, you win.
Let’s break it down simply, so there is no confusion about how it works.
Betting companies set their August odds using information from the previous season together with the information available before the new one starts. If a team won the league in may playing fantastic football, it may open again in August as a huge favorite, for example at odds of 1.25.
But May and August can be completely different.
There is also a good reason to be more careful with predictions at the beginning of a season. Research on football prediction has found that uncertainty is higher when only a small number of matches from the new season are available. Information from the previous season still matters, but team strength can also change during the summer break.
So, when a big team that is not fully ready plays against a smaller team that is already prepared, the chance of a slip-up – a draw or defeat – can be higher than the short odds suggest.
This is one of the simplest season football betting tips to keep in mind when the leagues return in August.
The secret of Lay betting is the relationship between Risk (Liability) and Profit. Let’s use an example.
A very well-known team, a favorite, is playing at home in August and its odds to win are 1.30.
You lay the favorite, aiming to win €10. Because the odds are very low at 1.30, your liability – the money you risk to lose if the favorite wins – is €3.
So, you are risking €3 to try to win €10.
Of course, low odds alone do not make a lay bet good value. The idea only makes sense if you believe the real chance of the favorite failing to win is higher than the market price suggests.
The best part of this technique is that you do not necessarily have to wait until the end of the match. You can close your position during the game.
This is where football trading strategies become different from simply placing a bet and waiting for the final result.
Imagine a situation where;
When this happens, you can now trade out of the position and lock in a profit if the available exchange prices allow it. You no longer need to care if the favorite scores five goals in the second half because your position is already closed.
In Betfair exchange this is called Betfair trading and it allows you to react to what is happening on the pitch instead of waiting until the final whistle.
In another possible scenario, the underdog team scores first. The favorite’s odds then, may jump sharply, for example from 1.30 to 2.50. This gives you the opportunity to close your position for a bigger profit.
The exact odds and profits here are examples. Live prices move according to the market, and a profitable Cash Out is never guaranteed.
Let’s look at a realistic example with Arsenal, who enter the new season as Premier League Champions.
Arsenal begin their new league campaign on Friday, 21 August 2026, at home against newly promoted – or theoretically much weaker – Coventry City.
Arsenal vs Coventry City
Friday, August 21
21:00 PM CET
Premier League
Arsenal have just won the league and have also beaten Manchester City 3-0 in the Community Shield. In our example, the market sees them as the clear favorite, with their price to win on the exchange at a very low 1.20.
But it is August.
Arsenal have made expensive transfers, such as Bruno Guimarães and Christos Tzolis, who are still finding their feet in the team, while their regular starters may not yet have full 90-minute match fitness.
Coventry, on the other hand, arrive with nothing to lose, ready to defend deep and disrupt Arsenal’s game.
You enter the betting exchange before kick-off.
The exchange calculates your liability using this simple formula:
Liability = Backer’s Stake x (Odds – 1)
Liability = €50 × (1.20 − 1) = €50 × 0.20 = €10
So in this example you are risking €10 for a possible €50 gross profit.
The match begins. Arsenal have possession, but Coventry defend in numbers. The minutes pass, Arsenal look tired and struggle to break down the defense.
We reach the 30th minute and the score is 0-0. With time now working aginst the favorite, imagine Arsenal’s live odds have risen from 1.20 to 1.45.
Your move: You can close the trade. If the available prices allow it, you can lock in a profit before half-time instead of waiting for the final result.
In this strategy you waiting for time passing without the favorite taking control of the score.
Imagine Coventry break on the counterattack in the 20th minute and score to make it 0-1. Arsenal’s live odds could immediately move much higher.
Your move: You can close the position and take the available profit without worrying about whether Arsenal will come back later.
Arsenal start strongly and make it 1-0 in the 8th minute. Their live odds fall sharply.
Your move: The strategy has gone against you. You can either close the trade and accept the available loss or keep the position open and hope Coventry equalize later.
If Arsenal eventually win, you lose the liability you accepted when placing the lay bet.
If you Back Arsenal at odds of 1.20 with let’s say €50, your potential profit is €10 before the commission.
With the lay the favorite strategy, you are looking at the match from the opposite side. Instead of asking, “will Arsenal win?”, you are asking “are these odds too short for a team playing its first league match in August?”
That is the real point of this strategy. You are looking for a favorite whose price may not fully reflect the uncertainty of the opening weeks.
And like every betting strategy, it can lose. The advantage is not automatic. It depends on the price you take, the match you choose and what actually happens on the pitch.
Experienced traders usually do not risk more than 2% to 5% of their total bankroll on a single match, even when the odds are very low, for example 1.20.
The sweet spot for this strategy in August is usually below 1.35. When the odds reach 1.60 or higher, the liability increases considerably and the risk/reward relationship becomes less attractive.
This is one of the main risks of the strategy. You can either cash out immediately and accept a small, controlled loss, or wait until half time hoping for an equalizer that pushes the favorite’s odds back up.
The strategy requires a betting exchange to properly use lay betting and live trading. With traditional bookmakers, you can use the equivalent X2 Double Chance, but you lose the flexibility of lay trading and quickly closing your position when the odds move.
Look for favorites that have a new manager, like Real Madrid for example this season that hired Jose Murinho. Look also for those that have several players returning tired from summer international summers. Also favorites that are playing away from home. And the ones that face a smaller team that is traditionally difficult to beat at home.
In August, big teams can be like luxury supercars that have just started their engines. They may need some time to warm up.
Smaller teams can be like tuned rally cars already running at full revs.
The lay the favorite strategy is designed to take advantage of exactly those first few kilometers of the football season – when the market has information from last season, but the new season has only just started.
Please bet responsibly. Never risk more than you can afford to lose.
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